The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc.

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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:21 pm

Oink wrote:It will be hot next week in Europe, temp expectations on Wednesday
up to 37-38 Celsius.

Beer fear: I urge you to stock up beer before Wednesday!

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 3077205713 The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 1455193345

+1

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Post by Böhse Tante on Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:52 pm

Oink wrote:It will be hot next week in Europe, temp expectations on Wednesday
up to 37-38 Celsius.

Beer fear: I urge you to stock up beer before Wednesday!

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In a region in Germany >40 ° Celsius expected. This is the first week in summer.

Last year it got terrible for me, because in the night the temperatures stayed high (inner city Frankfurt). I really got sick.

affraid

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Post by Anon on Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:11 pm



The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 850temp_anom_20190620_12_192

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 850temp_anom_20190620_12_240

I didn't see charts like this in maybe... ever.

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Post by Böhse Tante on Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:18 pm

Anon wrote:

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 850temp_anom_20190620_12_192

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 850temp_anom_20190620_12_240

I didn't see charts like this in maybe... ever.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 3491356335

The second chart means 16 degree higher than usual at that time?

Shocked

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Post by Anon on Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:58 pm

Böhse Tante wrote:The second chart means 16 degree higher than usual at that time?

Shocked

Yes 16c higher in this chart. But in the center where there is a slight shade of pink (where France's northern coast is) I make it 18c above normal.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 850temp_anom_20190620_12_192





And 14c above normal in some areas of Germany

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 850temp_anom_20190620_12_240




One thing to note is these charts show the temperatures at a certain number of meters high into the atmosphere, not the temperatures for at ground level, but it always translates into higher temperatures on the ground too.

Anyway, at ground level the early forecasts are saying in excess of 40c for France, mid 30c for UK and Germany. However I suspect there is potential for 40c not just France but UK, Germany and maybe other parts of Europe too. I'm not an expert but I say it because in my experience as it gets closer to the time of the predicted hot weather and the weather charts haven't changed, then that's usually the time when the weather companies push up the temperatures in their forecasts.



Here's a chart for next Thursday from one of the organizations that produce weather data. At the moment it shows in excess of 20c upper air over much of Europe (shown as the red area and the darker red with 28c upper air.). To understand how crazy this is, it is not often that 20c upper air goes into Europe from north of the Mediterranean, even in summertime. Just one example: Some 20c upper air went to southern UK for a short amount of time on 1st July 2015 and UK broke it's all time weather record for whole of July that day with 35c-36c.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 Navgem-1-174



Maybe these charts will change to less severe temperatures at the next updates but at the moment it looks like this upcoming weather could be worse than the deadly 2003 Europe heatwave.

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:16 am

Etienne Kapikian, a meteorologist who works at Météo-France says: “I think that we can reach at least 43°C or possibly 44/45°C in the upcoming heat wave. I wouldn't rule out a new all-time national record,” said Kapikian in an email. Official forecasts are not yet this hot, he noted, which is common when heat waves are still a few days out.


German meteorologist Michael Theusner says: “Currently, June 2019 in Germany is only narrowly behind the three hottest Junes (1889, 1917, and 2003) since at least 1881,” “And with the upcoming extreme heat wave, there is a very good chance we will break the 2003 record. The eastern parts of Germany have their hottest June already, and, Berlin/Brandenburg and Saxony by a margin of 1K [1.8°C].




Heat waves are especially dangerous when they occur early in the summer, before people have had time to adapt to the seasonal heat. A 2015 report from the World Meteorological Organization and World Health Organization on heatwaves and health notes:

Heatwave timing appears to have a notable effect on the level of mortality. Heatwaves occurring early in the summer have been shown to be associated with greater impacts on mortality in the same population than later heatwaves of comparable or higher temperatures (Hajat et al., 2002; Kinney et al., 2008; Anderson and Bell, 2011). The impact of high temperatures later in the summer is sometimes diminished after an early heatwave.

“In Europe, heatwaves occurring in June result in relatively high mortality compared to later in the summer, while most high-mortality events in southern Asia appear to occur early in the summer before the summer monsoon."

Adding the various national counts implies that more than 50,000 people died as a result of the 2003 European heat wave. Later estimates brought the toll as high as 70,000, though the exact number is difficult to discern. No heat wave in global history has produced so many documented deaths.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Europe-Awaits-Record-Smashing-June-Heat-Wave


Omfg...

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:39 am

Italy and Germany braced for record heatwave brought by gigantic Saharan bubble

Fears of repeat of devastation in Europe caused by scorching temperatures last summer

Continental Europe is facing the prospect of a record-breaking heatwave next week as a colossal bubble of sweltering air drifts north from Algeria, bringing temperatures expected to reach 44C.

The “Saharan Outbreak” is predicted to drive a wave of thunderstorms over Italy and Spain this weekend before a broad area of high pressure arrives on Monday with some of the hottest June weather since observations began.

By the time the weather system reaches Germany in the middle of the week, meteorologists believe there is a 50 per cent probability of 40C, challenging the national record high of 40.3C, set in the Bavarian town of Kitzingen in 2015.

One German forecaster warned that vulnerable people could die in hospitals or retirement homes weeks before the usual peak of the summer heat in July and August. Two credible weather models suggest that temperatures will remain well above 20C throughout the night.

Dominik Jung, a meteorologist, said there could be highs of 41C in some parts of Germany. “Three days in a row with temperatures of up to 40C — and in June, too,” he told Bild. “This has never happened before. The pressure jet from the Sahara is blasting the desert’s hot air directly towards us. And the sun is at its zenith, so it has a particularly long time to warm things up.”

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 Methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fbfa3279c-938c-11e9-ab3c-10fd6ad5a6e9

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/europe-braced-for-record-heatwave-brought-by-gigantic-saharan-bubble-3x2bfsm0l

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:56 am

Some error with the weather modelling I hope? One model here showing 46c in one or two spots of Germany next Thursday (literally an off the chart reading so it shows as colour white).

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Post by Böhse Tante on Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:00 am

Thank you for the info.

A few days is not so bad, I hope there are more changes in temperature than last year.

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Post by Mr Badger on Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:18 am

In terms of forecasting, it's a long way off, but if current models hold, the UK could be in for Spanish plume event to end all.
I have never seen a CAPE / Li chart like this one: (1800 run for Thursday 1500)

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 Captur15

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:21 am

Böhse Tante wrote:Thank you for the info.

A few days is not so bad, I hope there are more changes in temperature than last year.

Take care. The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 3796784211

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:26 am

Mr Badger wrote:In terms of forecasting, it's a long way off, but if current models hold, the UK could be in for Spanish plume event to end all.
I have never seen a CAPE / Li chart like this one: (1800 run for Thursday 1500)

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 Captur15

A thunderstorm to end all thunderstorms.

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Post by Mr Badger on Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:40 am

Anon wrote:
Mr Badger wrote:In terms of forecasting, it's a long way off, but if current models hold, the UK could be in for Spanish plume event to end all.
I have never seen a CAPE / Li chart like this one: (1800 run for Thursday 1500)

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 Captur15

A thunderstorm to end all thunderstorms.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 3700336097

I took a few pics of a marvelous rotating cell over Eastbourne the other night, I put them on the fun / off topic thread as I didn't notice the weather thread The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 1619689188

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Post by Böhse Tante on Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:53 am

Magnitude ML 4.8
Region FRANCE
Date time 2019-06-21 06:50:56.1 UTC

Shocked

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:14 pm

Mr Badger wrote:I took a few pics of a marvelous rotating cell over Eastbourne the other night, I put them on the fun / off topic thread as I didn't notice the weather thread The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 1619689188

Nice photos. You really have a nice geographical location for those storms.

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:15 pm

Böhse Tante wrote:Magnitude ML 4.8
Region FRANCE
Date time 2019-06-21 06:50:56.1 UTC

Shocked

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Post by Anon on Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:53 pm

Latest info for Europe temperatures at ground level for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday next week. 16c+ above usual.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_126

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_150

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_174

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_198

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Post by Mr Badger on Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:14 pm

Anon wrote:
Mr Badger wrote:I took a few pics of a marvelous rotating cell over Eastbourne the other night, I put them on the fun / off topic thread as I didn't notice the weather thread The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 1619689188

Nice photos. You really have a nice geographical location for those storms.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2979389474

Cheers Smile Yep, that's the one reason I moved here, and I haven't been let down yet.

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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:47 pm

And here we have French forecast...:



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"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
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Post by Anon on Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:42 pm



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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:00 pm

Anon wrote:Latest info for Europe temperatures at ground level for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday next week. 16c+ above usual.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_126

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_150

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_174

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_198

Something wrong with my settings? I can not see it.

Question

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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:18 pm

Böhse Tante wrote:
Anon wrote:Latest info for Europe temperatures at ground level for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday next week. 16c+ above usual.

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_126

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_150

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_174

The Weather Thread - Hurricanes, Storms, Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Solar Storms, etc. - Page 13 2mtemp_anom_20190621_12_198

Something wrong with my settings? I can not see it.

Question

Pics are gone, unfortunately...

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"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:29 pm

I tried to open the url but got 404.

Only the www.wxcharts.com part is ok.

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Post by Anon on Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:10 pm

Böhse Tante wrote:I tried to open the url but got 404.

Only the www.wxcharts.com part is ok.

Ah, it seems they only host the images for 24 hours or so...

But if you go to this link you can see what the latest forecast is for temperature anomaly. It updates every six hours.

https://bit.ly/2X028yi

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Post by Anon on Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:12 pm

Anon wrote:
Böhse Tante wrote:I tried to open the url but got 404.

Only the www.wxcharts.com part is ok.

Ah, it seems they only host the images for 24 hours or so...

But if you go to this link you can see what the latest forecast is for temperature anomaly. It updates every six hours.

https://bit.ly/2X028yi

Hmm direct link seems broken... all you need to do is go to https://www.wxcharts.com/ and select 'CHART' on the left hand panel and then select '2m Temperature Anomaly'.

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Post by Anon on Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:37 pm



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Post by Böhse Tante on Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:16 am

Anon wrote:
Anon wrote:
Böhse Tante wrote:I tried to open the url but got 404.

Only the www.wxcharts.com part is ok.

Ah, it seems they only host the images for 24 hours or so...

But if you go to this link you can see what the latest forecast is for temperature anomaly. It updates every six hours.

https://bit.ly/2X028yi

Hmm direct link seems broken...  all you need to do is go to https://www.wxcharts.com/ and select 'CHART' on the left hand panel and then select '2m Temperature Anomaly'.

Thnx,

dunno, I'm absolutely dizzy today, was already looking for "CHART" and didn't see it. Perhaps the weather ...

What a Face

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Post by Böhse Tante on Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:36 am

Magnitude Mw 6.1
Region PAPUA, INDONESIA
Date time 2019-06-24 01:05:30.6 UTC

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Post by Böhse Tante on Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:23 pm

Magnitude Mw 7.3
Region BANDA SEA
Date time 2019-06-24 02:53:40.1 UTC

Something is going on there!

https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2w

Usually around 20-25 EQs on this map, ATM 57!

Shocked

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Post by Böhse Tante on Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:45 pm

On this map west of Arabian Peninsula 49.9 °C (13:30 UTC):

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=43.52,22.21,862/loc=54.454,22.058

There you can see the wind blowing northward from Sahara.

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