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#1 - Wuhan (Novel) Corona Virus - looming pandemy of deadly pneumonia?

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Post by FoShizzle on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:04 am

SXSW Cancelled

This is a HUGE tech/music event.  It brings an average $300M revenue in for the city of Austin.  This is gonna hurt.

But you know, Trump somehow likes the fact that Covid-19 is keeping people from traveling and thinks it's going to help the economy.  Rolling Eyes
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:20 am


_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:30 am

FoShizzle wrote:SXSW Cancelled

This is a HUGE tech/music event.  It brings an average $300M revenue in for the city of Austin.  This is gonna hurt.

But you know, Trump somehow likes the fact that Covid-19 is keeping people from traveling and thinks it's going to help the economy.  Rolling Eyes

Like he thinks when export nations suffer it will help US economy. But USA has managed for decades to become "Import Champion", you can not reverse that within a few years, especially as global economy is "designed" like this. 

Rolling Eyes

_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:31 am


_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:37 am

TV News: Charité has found a remedy that could possibly prevent the viruses from entering.

Question

_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:51 am

Göttingen infection researchers researching drug against the coronavirus

Date: Thursday, 05 March 2020, 16:12

Göttingen infection researchers at the German Primate Centre have found a potential drug against the corona virus. Together with the Charité in Berlin and other institutes, they investigated how the virus enters cells. They found out that the protease TMPRSS2 is required for entry into the lung cells. The aim is now to block this protease in the human body in order to prevent the outbreak of the lung disease COVID-19. In Japan, there is already an approved drug called Camostat Mesilate, which is known to inhibit the protease TMPRSS2. It is commonly used to treat inflammation of the pancreas. A first trial showed that the drug actually prevents the novel coronavirus from entering lung cells. According to infection researcher Markus Hoffmann, this should now be investigated in further studies. So far, there is neither a vaccine nor a drug against the coronaviruses that are spreading worldwide. It is estimated that 90,000 people have been infected with the virus so far.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

https://www.stadtradio-goettingen.de/redaktion/nachrichten/goettinger_infektionsforschen_erforschen_medikament_gegen_das_coronavirus/

PS: Was the best I could find so fast.

_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by FoShizzle on Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:11 am

Very interesting..
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:41 am

I hope it works.

_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
Böhse Tante

Posts : 8129
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:41 am


_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
Böhse Tante

Posts : 8129
Reputation : 86
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:46 am


_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:56 am

Guy Elster
@guyelster
·
3m
#Iran: MP Fatemeh Rahbar dies from #coronavirus. Another official in the country that suffers heavily from the virus


#1 - Wuhan (Novel) Corona Virus - looming pandemy of deadly pneumonia? - Page 30 ESf3Es9XYAAYzlt?format=jpg&name=900x900

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"This is not a new world, it is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super-states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace." - "The Obsolete Man" - The Twilight Zone, 1961

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
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Post by Zambeezi on Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:59 am

Beijing hospital confirms nervous system infections by novel coronavirus
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/05/c_138846529.htm

BEIJING, March 5 (Xinhua) --
►Doctors from Beijing Ditan Hospital cured a 56 male patient whose cerebrospinal fluid had the virus.
►diagnosed COVID-19 Jan. 24 had severe symptoms & failed to respond to regular treatment.
►patient developed symptoms associated with decreased consciousness, though there were no abnormal signs on his head CT images.

inflammation of the brain
►conducted gene sequencing on samples of his cerebrospinal fluid and confirmed the presence of the novel coronavirus,
►diagnosed COVID-19 patient with encephalitis (an inflammation of the brain)

treatment
After the treatment of viral encephalitis, the patient's neurological symptoms gradually disappeared.
He was transferred to the infectious ward on Feb. 18 and was discharged from the hospital on Feb. 25.

SARS virus and the MERS virus can also invade patients' nervous systems.

As of Wednesday, the hospital has offered medical treatment to 150 COVID-19 infected patients and found one case with brain inflammation.

China's National Health Commission on Tuesday unveiled the latest version of the national diagnosis and treatment plan for COVID-19, which mentioned that the disease could cause congestion, edema and neuronal degeneration in brain tissues.


Last edited by Zambeezi on Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Zambeezi on Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:29 am


think about it... EVERY pssngr they came in contact with was then exposed. holee shit. Shocked

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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:21 pm

Guy Elster
@guyelster
·
9m
#Italy: The Secretary of the Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti is tested positive for #coronavirus


#1 - Wuhan (Novel) Corona Virus - looming pandemy of deadly pneumonia? - Page 30 ESgWuf4XkAAB-GH?format=jpg&name=900x900

_________________
"This is not a new world, it is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super-states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace." - "The Obsolete Man" - The Twilight Zone, 1961

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
KneelB4Zod!
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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:30 pm

Well, shit, this is quite unusual...

RT
@RT_com
·
56m
Chinese hotel ‘used as #COVID19 quarantine site’ COLLAPSES, trapping people under rubble

https://on.rt.com/accq


RT
@RT_com
·
11m
#UPDATE

At least 70 people trapped under collapsed 5-storey 'coronavirus quarantine' hotel in #China

MORE: https://on.rt.com/accq


#1 - Wuhan (Novel) Corona Virus - looming pandemy of deadly pneumonia? - Page 30 ESgvdPWWAAEnNoX?format=jpg&name=medium

_________________
"This is not a new world, it is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super-states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace." - "The Obsolete Man" - The Twilight Zone, 1961

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
KneelB4Zod!
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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:55 pm

Sputnik
@SputnikInt
·
15m
Over 1,000 Israeli IDF soldiers quarantined over possible coronavirus infection


https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003071078503431-over-1000-israeli-idf-soldiers-quarantined-over-possible-coronavirus-infection/

_________________
"This is not a new world, it is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super-states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace." - "The Obsolete Man" - The Twilight Zone, 1961

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
KneelB4Zod!
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:24 pm



They are old ...

pirat

_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:33 pm


_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
Böhse Tante

Posts : 8129
Reputation : 86
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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:44 pm



US abassadors only speak chewing gum.

_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
Böhse Tante

Posts : 8129
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2019-03-17
Location : Frankfurt am Main

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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:49 pm


_________________
The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
Böhse Tante
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Post by The Original Mind on Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:23 pm

Read the whole thread: https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095180459003909?s=21

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What works:
- free market economy
- mono-ethnic demographics
- peaceful foreign policy
- limited and small government
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#1 - Wuhan (Novel) Corona Virus - looming pandemy of deadly pneumonia? - Page 30 Empty Re: #1 - Wuhan (Novel) Corona Virus - looming pandemy of deadly pneumonia?

Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:31 pm

The Original Mind wrote:Read the whole thread: https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095180459003909?s=21

Unrolled by Threadreaderapp:

Liz Specht
@LizSpecht

15 hours ago, 36 tweets, 6 min read

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n

Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n

If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n

Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n

One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n

How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n

Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor. 18/n

Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n

HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n

We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start:



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

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"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
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Post by The Original Mind on Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:33 pm

If this only partly holds true, we’re fucked.

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Post by The Original Mind on Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:33 pm


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Post by Böhse Tante on Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:54 pm



All politicians and big biz bosses should make big conferences now. And invite some infected too.

pirat

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The main reason for my wish to change this society is that so many human skills have no chance to come to fruition. Instead they are used in a really sick way so that people are maintaining their own suffering from wars, hunger and illness. But it can not be changed "top-down", only in some kind of "grassroots revolution" or better "evolution" where more and more people work together to get rid of TPTB (whoever that is).

No need for a "big event" but development. One of my ideas to reach it: Don't play "their" games - don't use "their" rules - don't think in the box of "their" paradigms.
It's more "refuse" than "resist" - without too much ideology. You don't need to know much about "what's going on behind the curtains", it's mainly to create your own rules together with like-minded people.

That is what I mean with "I'm on the side of the people".

Ceterum censeo Imperium Americanum esse delendum.

Die Lage ist hoffnungslos aber nicht ernst.
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Post by The Original Mind on Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:07 pm


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Post by The Original Mind on Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:10 pm


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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:29 pm


_________________
"This is not a new world, it is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super-states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace." - "The Obsolete Man" - The Twilight Zone, 1961

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
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Post by KneelB4Zod! on Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:29 pm

Talos wrote: Joseph Watson
@PrisonPlanet

The man believed to be coronavirus patient zero in Italy is a Pakistani migrant refused to self-isolate after testing positive for the virus and continued to deliver food.

Wow he should be charged with murder as 233 people have now died in Italy now

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"This is not a new world, it is simply an extension of what began in the old one. It has patterned itself after every dictator who has ever planted the ripping imprint of a boot on the pages of history since the beginning of time. It has refinements, technological advances, and a more sophisticated approach to the destruction of human freedom. But like every one of the super-states that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace." - "The Obsolete Man" - The Twilight Zone, 1961

"I assure you, ladies and gentlemen that, very soon history will show that we and our allies have fought a war on behalf of the whole world against terrorism supported by governments that will be held accountable by its own people..."
Quoting Dostoyevsky:
"Rest assured, hell is big enough for all. It doesn't deserve this fierce competition over who will be the worst." - Dr. Bashar Jaafari, UNSC session, 22nd of February, 2018
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Post by The Original Mind on Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:42 pm

Expect Up To 40% Of Tehran's Population To Be Infected In 2 Weeks: Iranian Health Official

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/40-tehrans-population-be-infected-2-weeks-health-official-predicts

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